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Is Donald Trump gambling his popularity and presidency with strikes on Iran?

Donald Trump in the Situation Room of the White House yesterday
Donald Trump in the Situation Room of the White House yesterday (Picture: EPA)

The US bombed three nuclear sites in Iran overnight, which might be a surprise if you heard his campaign rhetoric against foreign intervention.

Boasting to be ‘the only president in generations who didn’t start a war’ on the campaign trail, he said his presidency would ‘turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars’.

So what led to him sending B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to drop ‘bunker buster’ bombs on Iran last night, as as well as firing Tomahawk cruise missiles from US Navy submarines?

Angelia Wilson, Professor of Politics at the University of Manchester, told Metro that his motivations are most likely to be political rather than borne from ideological conviction.

‘Two weeks ago he had a big military parade that no one showed up to, and he had millions of Americans protesting against him over 2,000 cities. You’ve got to get those headlines shifted somehow,’ she said.

Her work looks particularly at the Christian Right in the US, and she said that key figures have been calling for the US to support Israel in their war against Iran.

‘I monitor the emails from political organisations to their constituents, and they’ve spent the last two weeks softening the ground for this,’ she said.

Many had been sharing Bible verses such as Numbers 23:24, which describes Israel rising ‘like a lion’ to destroy and devour its enemies until all the blood of its prey is drained.

Military action supporting Israel is therefore likely to play well with this key section of his base, which also includes those with the biggest pockets to fund Republican politicians.

‘MAGA’ supporters, who tend to be more secular, working class, anti-establishment and supportive of the ‘America First’ slogan against involvement overseas, are unlikely to be cheerleaders for the bombing campaign.

US strikes nuclear facilities in Iran
Nuclear facilities in Iran struck by the US overnight (Picture: Metro/Datawrapper)

The in-fighting between these two factions of Republican supporters could be seen most clearly when Senator Ted Cruz debated Tucker Carlson over Iran.

The former Fox News heavyweight savaged the politician, claiming he knew little about the country he intended to bomb, and could not say its population or ethnic mix.

But Professor Wilson, who wrote The Politics of Hate: How the Christian Right Darkened America’s Political Soul, said that although MAGA supporters may not like the idea, they are unlikely to turn against Trump over it, so long as strikes remain limited, and troops are not sent to fight.

Trump has ‘weighed up which of the constituents he needs to keep happy at this stage, and it’s very much the Christian Right,’ she claimed.

Asked whether he was gambling his presidency over the issue, she said she doubted he was too concerned with his personal political legacy as he doesn’t have to be elected again (constitutionally, he can only serve two terms).

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